How I Realized That I Think Obama Will Win
February 13, 2008 3 Comments
It was a multi-step parallel process. It happened this evening, talking with a friend on the subway.
1. He asked “So do you think Clinton will win?” and I thought of Bill & didn’t understand the question. Took a moment to realize he was speaking of Hillary.
2. I answered him “No, I don’t”, somewhat to my surprise.
3. When I asked what he thought, he said “Well, I’m not optimistic” – and I didn’t get his point. He thinks Obama will lose? I was assuming he was for Obama you see (like everyone?). In other words, I’m mentally treating Obama as the front-runner already, and if someone demonstrates (D) tendencies (as this guy did by asking about the (D) primary in the first place) I assume they’re for Obama. So it took my brain forever to parse his statement and realize that he was, in fact, in favor of Clinton.
The fact that I apparently think Obama will win means, of course, absolutely nothing. But it is a change from the previous year+, because I have thought all that time that the next President would be Hillary Clinton. Evidently, now I don’t.
That’s funny. And telling, I think.
Prediction markets agree with you. Intrade has Obama at a 51.9% chance of becoming president, vs. Clinton ‘s 18.5%. McCain, by the way, is coming in at 31.3%.
With Paul virtually out of the race, I find myself asking the perennial “lesser of two evils” question. I suppose if I felt the way you did about foreign policy (or at least, the way I perceive you feel about foreign policy), I too would reluctantly be casting my lot in the McCain camp. As it stands, I am only somewhat ironically comforted by knowing that my vote will ultimately make no difference, so it’s all entertainment to me (albeit expensive).
On a side note, even though I am ideologically opposed to nearly all of Obama’s platform, I find myself rooting for him to make it to the white house. It seem that I, like every other Obama supporter I’ve spoken with about the matter (n=3), am sucked in by his magnificent oratory skills. I think I, and Obama’s backers, could use a health dose of Plato’s Gorgias. Perhaps it’s the stark contrast of Obama’s speaking style against Bush’s blundering that attracts people to the senator. In fact, it would be interesting to see the correlation between the intensity of the personal connection they feel with Obama and the intensity of personal distrust of Bush. Both, in my opinion, are fairly populist leaders– they just appeal to different camps.
At first I was put off by the fawning admiration for Obama’s speechifying. What everyone seemed to be saying, especially the upper middle class white ‘liberals’ who first fell in love with him, was that (not in so many words) they were amazed that a black man could put two sentences together. I still can’t quite shake the sense that this feeling is behind much of his momentum. However, I may have gotten sucked in from time to time myself in spite of that. I’d certainly like to see him beat Hillary (despite, like you, being ideologically opposed to him in nearly every way – more so than for Hillary in fact). And I expect the (D) to win so that also means I’m mentally prepared to see him become President I guess.
Truth is, even though I feel strongly about this and that ‘issue’ I don’t feel very strongly about the Presidential race. We’re a strong country and we’ll survive either way; mostly I just want the election to be transparent and seen as ‘fair’ by the participants. No more ‘stolen election’ whining, I sincerely hope.
You make an interesting point that Obama and Bush are both ‘populists’, just (I take it) with different skill sets. Bush can’t speak and Obama can, etc. Thus, people out there who craved ‘oratory skills’ have been left feeling starved by Bush for 8 years. Not coincidentally, they’ve jumped on the Obama train. I think there’s something to that, both as an explanation for the Obama love and for the Bush hate in some quarters.
Since I’m not much of a populist, and don’t place a premium on things such as ‘oratory skills’, my views on both are more tempered. Makes sense. Best,
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