September 13, 2012 8 Comments
As you might know if you read this blog closely enough to know these things (I doubt anyone is in this category) I predicted and had no doubt a semi-aggressive, slightly-in-the-direction-of-NGDP-targeting “QE3″ would happen so today’s action is not a surprise in the slightest hence I have very little to say about it either way. I suppose the one interesting thing about it is that ‘stimulus’ fans are hailing it as big and substantial; for the first time I can remember, this lays down the gauntlet because if it doesn’t accomplish what they say/think it should, they won’t have ‘well, it just wasn’t big enough‘ as a fallback excuse.
Oh, wait. I should have read Scott Sumner first:
…my hunch is that we are a bit too little and too late to significantly affect this business cycle … The bad news is that 100 points on the Dow is indicative of a really small change in the RGDP growth rate, basically within the margin or error. So we’ll never know any more than we know right now about whether the policy will “work.”
See what he did there? By the Sumner Criteria we can never know whether this was a good or bad policy, so don’t even try. Well hedged, sir. Well hedged. You have totally outplayed the Yglesiai of the world, who have left themselves wide open to actual disproof. Fools!
Anyway, I’m noticing an inability to be surprised lately. This wasn’t surprising. It wasn’t surprising that the German court ruling a few days ago ok’ed the latest & greatest Europe Solution. Nor will I be surprised in the slightest when President Obama wins re-election in November.
I seem to have discovered an ability in myself to easily predict such things by simply taking what I would prefer to happen, and inverting it. I don’t know if this is a superpower I was born with, or obtained via spider-bite or the like, but I hereby pledge to use the power for good not evil.
Trouble is, in the meantime, it makes following the news pretty boring.