The Trump Revelation
October 24, 2012 8 Comments
A few days ago Donald Trump said he was going to reveal something on Wednesday that could affect the Presidential race. That’s today, and now reports are trickling out that what he’s revealing are…un-filed divorce papers drawn up by Michelle Obama.
Let’s see, how will this affect the Presidential race?
1) If the news is entirely comprised of the fact that the Obamas once had marital troubles, but worked through them, this mostly gets an “Awwwwww!” from all the female voters out there. Advantage: Obama.
2) But, you say, divorce papers usually have juicy stuff inside them. After all it was the contents of, not the fact of, leaked divorce papers that (mysteriously!) took down two of Obama’s prior electoral rivals. So what could be in these divorce papers? There aren’t that many possibilities, really.
2a) Infidelity: Obama cheated with another woman. How will people react? ‘He’s a player! We never realized! This makes him Clinton-esque!’ Advantage: Obama.
2b) Homosexuality: Obama, confirming certain rumors, is a closet homosexual, or at least was into the homosexual ‘scene’ back in Chicago (but gave it up?). This is a BIG wild-card, but I have to think that if it actually came out, in the end the story would be: ‘Obama is even more Diverse than we thought. He has really lived the whole Minority experience in every dimension! Such a Compelling Life Story!’ Advantage: wild-card, but I’m saying Obama.
2c) Um, something like ‘emotional coldness’ or a related complaint leading to ‘irreconcilable differences’? This actually seems like the most realistic read of the Obamas’ marriage. And it could, I imagine, hurt him with some female voters. But I’m skeptical that a Michelle Obama would have drawn up divorce papers on such a basis at that time.
So we shall see, but my baseline expectation has to be that the Trump Revelation – if it reveals anything tangible at all – will only help Obama win re-election.
UPDATE: It’s seeming like this isn’t even what it was, so I was duped. Unless I’ve just missed the news somehow. But all I’m seeing is something about a ‘reward’ *boggle*
Sorry for the flurry of comments today, but you’re on a roll.
How about: 3) Domestic abuse? I think the guy’s anger when people challenge him is palpable – I’d never want to meet him in a dark alley.
Or, 4) Substance abuse? We already know he has a past history of cocaine abuse.
I’m not holding my breath here, and I already think Trump’s credibility is not up to the task undertaken, but as long as we’re speculating, there are some scenarios that could rub Obama the wrong way. And come what may, Michelle Obama will have to answer for this, which won’t play well after all those insincere cuddly TV moments on The View, etc.
Good additions!
For some reason #3 hadn’t really even occurred to me even though it’s gotta be a pretty commonly cited grounds for divorce in general (maybe subconsciously I just don’t think he has it in him?). Yes, would have to assume a #3 would hurt him. Although, you can also imagine he & Michelle going on Oprah, Michelle doing most of the talking, him holding her hand, as she says ‘he got the help he needed’ and ‘we’ve put all that behind us’. This pretty much takes you back to ‘Awwww’ territory.
#4 I think unlikely mostly because he strikes me as a bit too high-functioning to have a substance problem at this point, other than the cigarettes. Or to put it another way, he pretty clearly self-medicates effectively via cigarettes, to an extent that one wouldn’t think harder stuff necessary. But yes, maybe there was a coke problem back in 2000 or so. This actually takes us into George W. Bush territory.
As you say, either way Michelle would have to answer any (serious/credible) revelation along these lines. But you can picture it right? The Oprah appearance, the couch, the holding hands; it’s almost inevitable that it’d all be spun in Obama’s favor.
Hey, SC. I agree. Whether he’s gay, or had an affair, that’s not going to change the opinion of people who like him. It will only serve to cement Trump’s image as a jerk.
However, if it is number three as RP Long proposes, that could actually be a big deal.
I think the reason it did not occur to you is the same reason it did not occur to me; Obama seems like a good family man, not the kind who would hit a woman.
He is, also, as you say, too high-functioning to have a substance abuse problem.
Just having divorce papers doesn’t hurt Obama at all, Trump instead looks like a big meanie for dredging up a private matter that they’ve obviously gotten past.
Something like infidelity could be bad depending on how Obama reacts. If he says something contrite about how he was unfaithful and foolish but Mrs. O has forgiven him and now their marriage is stronger for it, I don’t see how he takes any damage from it. He might even gain.
Irreconcilable differences would basically be a nonentity, like just having divorce papers without a reason at all. It’s too vague and not very exciting.
Homosexuality could play out badly for Obama…he could portray any dalliances as a confused time for him (i.e. not really gay), but if he doesn’t go the Not Really Gay path then he pretty much has to divorce Michelle now. I mean, the Democratic party line is adamant that gays are Born That Way and not changing, so what would the alternative be? I’m not sure how a coming-out would affect public perception, but it would definitely derail his personal life and future ambitions. Suffice it to say I don’t think this one is very likely.
Abuse would have be played similarly to infidelity, but it is thornier and he would have to be more careful. In modern America, abusing your wife is considered a worse crime than cheating on her.
Drug habit would be like infidelity without the victim. Americans wouldn’t want a cokehead president, but as long as he puts it in the past he is fine. Like you said, it arguably makes him cooler.
Ah, it turned out to be nothing. Good job Trump, you trolled me.
I think it’s amazing how, while we all expected basically nothing, he managed to find a whole new level of nothing to surprise us with.
Please don’t forget that domestic abuse can take psychological form as well as physical. I can entirely see the Obama arrogance-failure personality being adoring and wooing toward a woman prior to marriage, and then alternately loving/demeaning toward the then-spouse.
I can also see Michelle living with that kind of behavior for only so long before she’d understand and acknowledge what was happening, and revolting via ultimatim backed up by drafted divorce papers.
Not that I’d believe anything Trump says for a second. He’s a carnival barker, always looking for an easy mark.
Maybe she found out he’s actually white!
That could be seriously damaging.