For poll conspiracy-theorists
October 31, 2012 11 Comments
To follow-up my previous post on the Sonic Charmer Electoral Model™, we can now use it for something really important which is to help hone, calibrate and fine-tune your poll conspiracy theories.
As I’ve said, the quandary faced by righties is that they need to disbelieve state polls in order to think Romney isn’t a long shot. Now, there are plenty of half-assed reasons one can come up with to disbelieve state polls, and I’ve come up with some of them myself. It’s fun! I encourage it! Maybe there’s a ‘Bradley effect’. Maybe pollsters tend to be biased lefty Smart People so they fudge whatever fudge factors in whatever direction. Maybe righties Don’t Answer Their Phone As Much because they’re more likely to Have Jobs And Families. All three.
On the flip side, as you know, I think (D)s are Better At Cheating. This means they’ll outperform (accurate) polls which means that a poll that is (D)-biased, in the exact size of (D) cheating, might actually be ‘correct’.
In any event, when I mentally pull these poll biases out of my butt and add them together, I get that maybe polls are consistently underestimating (R)s by ~1.5%. And if I add that number to all the state polls, and run it through the Sonic Charmer Electoral Model™, I get that Romney has a ~55% chance of winning.
Which is good to know. But for folks playing along at home, I realized it might be helpful to know the answer to this: IF…I want to fantasize that the election probability is different from what Nate Silver says, HOW MUCH…do I have to fudge state polls?
Now that I have the Sonic Charmer Electoral Model™ at my fingertips, this is easy to do! Let’s run the model by bumping Obama’s advantage in each state by X%. Remember that for X=0% (no bump), I just come out with the ~78% Obama advantage that Nate Silver has. As stated above I have to bump Obama’s polling by -1.5% (i.e. 1.5% in favor of Romney) to make Romney the (slight) favorite.
Here’s a fuller table below, to aid you in your poll second-guessing/election fantasizing:
|poll fudge (O+):||Obama%|
And the good news for conspiracy-theorists/poll skeptics everywhere is, the sensitivity really is pretty big. You only have to think polls are off (in Obama’s favor) by 0.5% to lower Obama’s probabilities by ~10% or so. That’s not that hard a fantasy to pull off!
So, good to know. Just another public service from the staff here at RWCG, Inc.