RWCG


Today’s Election Update
November 2, 2012, 8:27 am
Filed under: Uncategorized

Based on some updates to today’s RCP state poll averages, the Sonic Charmer Electoral Model™ has increased the Obama chances of winning from 79%ish to 80%ish. Some of the polls in almost-safe states (Washington, etc.) have really hardened in Obama’s favor, appears to be why.

I notice Nate Silver has moved his ‘model’ in the same direction too, by about the same amount. (He’s at 80.9% so my model lags his by 1%ish.)

This stuff is really just FREAKIN ROCKET SCIENCE. You have to have a quantum physics degree to even begin to understand it, it’s so opaque and arcane and alchemical!

Anyway, I’m pretty sure I should totally be given my own “538″-like BLOG by, like, the Wall Street Journal or something, as the ‘conservative alternative’ to Silver. I’d get a salary and a budget and everything. Then we’ll take turns pressing F9 daily on our GODDAM ROCKET SCIENCE models and move around the numbers in parallel (of course they’ll basically always move in the same direction) and everyone will argue whether 80% is more correct than 80.9% or vice versa.

It’s gonna be awesome.

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1 Comment so far
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Yeah these “election models” are really is an undergrad stats class wrapped in fancy pseudo-science. Nevertheless, it probably does have at least a kernel of truth.

Comment by Dave




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