Election update: Looks like we’re probably in one of the more-likely universes that was possible for us to be in, after all
November 6, 2012 11 Comments
As I write this, about 4 out of The Eleven have been called for Obama (PA/WI/NH/MI). The big key states are up for grabs but OH is looking good for Obama. No surprises from the state polls and my prediction map is exactly alive. And so, by the way, is ‘Nate Silver’s reputation’ against the highly-intelligent righty charge that he was going to be proven ‘wrong’ in the elementary statistical act of using Bayesian reasoning to count universes constrained by some random observations.
Pinning down all these called-states in the Sonic Charmer Electoral Model™ gives Obama a lo/mid-90s % chance now, which is just about where he’s trading on Intrade. More validation! I should have been putting on mean-reversion trades to my model all day to capture all that vig!
The conventional wisdom says that where it stands now is that Romney, Inc.-supporters have to hope for FL and VA to maintain slim leads, which are perhaps likely, but then hope for some kind of miracle in OH.
But this is actually WRONG. Yes, Romney will probably hold onto a slim lead in Florida per the initial, like, ‘count’, but it will be less than the 0.5% threshold and thereby trigger an automatic recount. And as always, we at RWCG like to give our readers the friendly civics reminder that, under the U.S. Constitution, a ‘recount’, despite its misleading name, is a very traditional and obscure process whereby some state officials fiddle around with papers and hang around in courtrooms with lawyers for a few days or weeks, and then eventually certify whoever has the (D) after his name as the winner.
That means Romney has lost Florida already, even if it looks like he’s won it. So keep that in mind; despite what talking heads will tell you, there’s actually nothing riding on Ohio. Romney has already lost Florida, and therefore, the Presidency.
UPDATE: Well now Drudge has this about Florida:
O 3,816,442 49.83%
R 3,776,774 49.31%
That is a more than 0.5% difference, so they might actually be able to award the state to a (D) right away, instead of going through the hassle and redundant formality of a ‘recount’. Which (again), would just inevitably result in awarding it to the (D) eventually anyway.
It’s like Obama’s two terms, or rectal exams; we want to get these things over with as soon as possible.