Obama’s Re-Election Prospects
August 7, 2011, 10:45 am
Filed under: Uncategorized

Let me go once again on the record about my estimate of President Obama’s re-election prospects: they are as high as they ever were, and I fully expect him to be re-elected.

Doubters may scoff and wonder on what facts, substance, or data I am basing this judgment. The answer: none.

But you are missing the point. Barack Obama was not elected to the Presidency on the basis of any facts, substance, or data in the first place. He was elected to the Presidency because he is a kinda-black skinny guy who looks good in a suit and can mouth ‘sonorous’ speeches (that people can squint their eyes and tell themselves are kinda like MLK or someone) if he has a Teleprompter in front of him. All of that remains just as true as it ever was. Thus, there is no logical reason whatsoever why all the people who voted for him last time, shouldn’t vote for him next time.

Oh, some of them may express displeasure about him on specific, substantive questions in polls, etc. Sure. But when Election Day rolls around, and those voters who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 go to the ballot box, and they ask themselves ‘Is Barack Obama still a suave, skinny kinda-black guy who looks good in a suit and can sonorously read ‘inspiring’ speeches off a Teleprompter?’, they are all going to realize that the answer is a resounding Yes.

Plus, the opponent will have an (R) after his name; can’t have that. It’s racist.

12 Comments so far
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Most of the presidents in modern times have had the R. And our chattering media has never approved of this, not for a single minute. Furthermore, on average over the last fifty years when the president was overwhelmingly likely to have the R after his name, the media was far more influential than it is today. We still had the R after that name six years out of ten.

Your mistake with Obama’s voters is to count a multitude as a single instance. I sympathize with the temptation; they aren’t known for being overly enthused about the concept of individuality. But they aren’t hostile to it either. If you really had to generalize over their class as if it were all a monolith, what they really like is fashion…are you presenting an argument that Barry will be as fashionable in ’12 as He was in ’08?

Since they’re a multitude, despite appearances, the right way to look at it is: How many of His 2008 supporters would Barry have to lose, to be sent home? Answer: Not a whole heck of a lot, some 66 electoral votes’ worth? There were a lot of purple states in the last election, many of them have unemployment rates significantly higher now than what they had back then.

I wear anti-Obama shirts every single day I possibly can. I used to think it was cause for optimism when the muffled, whispered “like yer shirt, dude” morphed into thumbs-up and smiles and yells from across parking lots: “Hey! Love your shirt!” Nowadays I see a new response, that’s even more encouraging: “I’m so sorry I voted for Him.”

I’ve yet to hear anyone say “Gee, I wish I voted for Him but I didn’t get around to it.” I’ve yet to hear anyone say “I’ll be out there voting for Him next year.” I don’t think I ever will.

Another thing you need to think about: How old are these voters? If you were barely old enough to vote in 2008 and you voted for Obama, sometime in the four years afterward you need to graduate from college and look for one of those J-O-B-S that Biden was talking about…this experience isn’t going to sway anyone in the President’s direction, especially if it’s the first time that jobseeker has been subjected to it. If you will be barely old enough to vote in 2012, and thought it was really cool these older kids voted for O in 2008 and wished you could do it yourself — absolutely nothing has been happening to keep that fashion statement fresh, and much has been happening to make it stale. I should add that fashion statements go stale naturally. It is their nature. Nobody’s going to fall over themselves right now to wear a cowboy hat with a goatee, or buy a tiny little dog that fits into a purse, or snap up a pair of skinny jeans. Fashion moves constantly or else it dies. Barry is just another fashion statement that used to have currency, three and four years ago. And you don’t have to be a policy wonk to figure out we can’t afford Him. Being a college grad looking for a job, will turn the lights on for you.

Comment by Morgan K Freeberg

None of those previous (R)s were elected over a black incumbent President who is ‘cool’ and loved by hip moviestars and the like. So I do agree that Obama’s supporting faction is driven by fashion as a guiding force. Unfortunately for (R)s, they just don’t have anyone to rival Obama in that department – and aren’t likely to (as Xamuel alludes).

It may be that a lot of people are expressing lip-service style dissatisfaction with him at present. I’ve seen this, sure. I don’t expect anything but a tiny minority of them will vote against him when the rubber meets the road. Talk is easy. Voting against the (D) is hard (for such people).

I don’t know who the (R) nominee will be, but presumably it will be someone like a Romney figure. Now, imagine you’re one of the former, disenchanted Obama-lovers. But then you consider the opponent. Left-dominated media will do its part by feeding you a steady diet of reasons to hate that opponent. He will be, inevitably, a monstrous racist who wants to drag black people behind pickups and push old people out of their homes (etc). All sorts of stuff will be dug up on him, about him being racist, mean, and/or dumb.

By the time Election Day rolls around, do you really think most of Obama’s supporters will have any trouble telling themselves a ‘yes he hasn’t been perfect, BUT’ story?

Obviously, I’d like to believe you’re correct. And maybe I’m just sandbagging/hedging against disappointment. But I look at the lay of the land here nad I genuinely don’t see how 2012 ends with anything other than a reinauguration.

Hopefully, I’m wrong.

Comment by Sonic Charmer

By the time Election Day rolls around, do you really think most of Obama’s supporters will have any trouble telling themselves a ‘yes he hasn’t been perfect, BUT’ story?

I think Little Emperor will net nine out of ten. That is to say, 10% of His enthused voters are like the cashier I met…”I’m sorry I voted for Him.” And my estimate of 10% is being charitable toward O. It could just as well be 20% or 25%. Or higher.

I don’t think the question has a lot to do with what they pick[ed]…that is not the fashion statement. The fashion statement is the enthusiasm. The crying with tears of joy (that others could see) during the victory speech, and all that. That’s the fashion — not the flame itself, but the light and the heat.

That’s gone.

So to answer your question, what I’m hoping is not quite so much that they’ll punch the chad for the R candidate, but that they’ll stay home. Let’s face it: That’s what they should’ve done three years ago. They don’t care.

Comment by Morgan K Freeberg

Clinton knew what the game was: It’s the economy, stupid.

Mussolini could beat Obama. He’d make the trains run on time.

Comment by Borepatch

It’s not exactly looking like the republicans are going to be fielding a stellar opponent. 2012: Barack Obama vs. “Also Ran”!

Comment by Xamuel

He won’t be “Also Ran”, by the time the media does their usual number on him he will be “evil incarnate”. Whoever he is.

My working theory is that (R)s simply won’t win the Presidency until they find, like, an actual celebrity to be on their ticket. The classic conservative-stars ’80s/’90s triumvirate of Stallone/Schwarzenegger/Willis isn’t looking so hot right about now, but it has to be someone in that echelon, today’s equivalent of that.

I was holding out hope for Mila Kunis, but I just wiki’ed her (not native born, sigh).

Ironically, the closest thing the (R)s might have to an actual celebrity? Sarah Palin. (I mean, it’s not like she’s an actual politician at present.)

Comment by Sonic Charmer

Rick Perry has a chance against Obama, SC. A chance. He is the only potential Republican Candidate who does have a chance.

Comment by Pastorius

Perry is a formidable candidate and he does have a chance.

If we’re counting those who could be good candidates, but who have not actually entered, then it’s incorrect to say Perry is the “only.” I’m liking the lightweight from Wasilla…and no, I don’t think she’s a lightweight.


Comment by Morgan K Freeberg

If I had to bet on the (R) with the best chance, I guess it’d be him.

I still don’t think he would win.

Comment by Sonic Charmer

[…] Charmer – “Obama’s Re-Election Prospects“, ““The Bush Tax Cuts”“, “The Missing […]

Pingback by Linkage is Good for You: You Fill in the Blank Edition

It IS the economy, stupid! The economy sucks right now, and for that reason alone, Barack Hussein Obama will NOT be reelected….

Comment by MarkyMark

[…] Me, August 2011: Let me go once again on the record about my estimate of President Obama’s re-election prospects: they are as high as they ever were, and I fully expect him to be re-elected. […]

Pingback by DECISION 2012: I May Be Wrong For All I Know, But I May Be Right « Rhymes With Cars & Girls

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