November 3, 2012 20 Comments
PostLibertarian points out something I didn’t know, something very retarded, about how poll results are being reported. (Nate Silver uses correct poll numbers; another point in favor of his ‘model’!)
Michael Barone predicts a 315-EV Romney win. Why? “Fundamentals.” Which is swell and all, but howcome nobody can explain why these mysterious “fundamentals” aren’t really showing up in poll numbers? Do the “fundamentals” only kick in post-polling? I’m afraid actual votes trump “fundamentals” and polls, however flawed, are at least trying to be an estimate of the former. I don’t even know what “fundamentals” is trying to be.
Look, all I’m asking as a Romney, Inc.-preferrer is some quasi-believable fantasy scenario to hang my hopes on. Something rooted in actual observable fact. If it’s, ‘all the polls are systematically overcounting (D)s’, I’m prepared to believe that! But I need a workable theory as to how on earth that is happening. Not even necessarily a great theory (I believe in all sorts of wacky theories!), but at least something. Is that really too much to ask?
It’s like, there’s a reason that porn scenarios (I’VE HEARD) involve guys who are, like, cable technicians and pizza delivery guys, instead of attaches to the UN undersecretary or world-renowned neurosurgeons. You want to be able to believe in the fantasy without straining yourself too hard. “Yeah, I could totally be that guy.” But Barone yammering about some mysterious ‘fundamentals’ that (far as I can tell) exist mostly in his head, that’s giving me nothin’. Bad (R) porn. And really, what’s worse than bad porn?
Looks like Radley Balko’s prediction is the same as mine, Obama with 290. But, he loses me with his ‘advice’ to (R)s, that what they need to do is to “Stop hating on immigrants.” The oft-repeated notion that (R)s don’t get support of immigrants (and, of racial groups like blacks) simply because they ‘hate on’ or don’t ‘reach out to’ those groups strikes me as tremendously patronizing and insulting – to those groups. It can’t actually be that those groups have actual, deep-seated, sincere pro-lefty ideas that they see as being in genuine, honest conflict with those of the (R)s? They only vote for (D)s because the (R)s talk mean to them and don’t ask for their vote? How did the great Bush/Rove-era push to embrace the perennially ‘culturally conservative’ Hispanics and lastingly convert them to (R)s, work out in 2008 I wonder? Why, let’s ask President McCain! This, like nominating McCain in the first place, is the sort of concern-trolling ‘advice for (R)s’ I have come to expect from people who don’t actually want (R)s to win. The sad thing is how often the (R)s follow such advice.
RELATED RE: IMMIGRATION: Jeb Bush thinks Texas will ‘go blue’ by 2016 due to demographics. Oh yes, the (R)s being nicey-nice to immigrants is what will save them….