Election update: Looks like we’re probably in one of the more-likely universes that was possible for us to be in, after all
November 6, 2012, 10:00 pm
Filed under: Uncategorized

As I write this, about 4 out of The Eleven have been called for Obama (PA/WI/NH/MI). The big key states are up for grabs but OH is looking good for Obama. No surprises from the state polls and my prediction map is exactly alive. And so, by the way, is ‘Nate Silver’s reputation’ against the highly-intelligent righty charge that he was going to be proven ‘wrong’ in the elementary statistical act of using Bayesian reasoning to count universes constrained by some random observations.

Pinning down all these called-states in the Sonic Charmer Electoral Model™ gives Obama a lo/mid-90s % chance now, which is just about where he’s trading on Intrade. More validation! I should have been putting on mean-reversion trades to my model all day to capture all that vig!

The conventional wisdom says that where it stands now is that Romney, Inc.-supporters have to hope for FL and VA to maintain slim leads, which are perhaps likely, but then hope for some kind of miracle in OH.

But this is actually WRONG. Yes, Romney will probably hold onto a slim lead in Florida per the initial, like, ‘count’, but it will be less than the 0.5% threshold and thereby trigger an automatic recount. And as always, we at RWCG like to give our readers the friendly civics reminder that, under the U.S. Constitution, a ‘recount’, despite its misleading name, is a very traditional and obscure process whereby some state officials fiddle around with papers and hang around in courtrooms with lawyers for a few days or weeks, and then eventually certify whoever has the (D) after his name as the winner.

That means Romney has lost Florida already, even if it looks like he’s won it. So keep that in mind; despite what talking heads will tell you, there’s actually nothing riding on Ohio. Romney has already lost Florida, and therefore, the Presidency.

UPDATE: Well now Drudge has this about Florida:

O 3,816,442 49.83%
R 3,776,774 49.31%

That is a more than 0.5% difference, so they might actually be able to award the state to a (D) right away, instead of going through the hassle and redundant formality of a ‘recount’. Which (again), would just inevitably result in awarding it to the (D) eventually anyway.

It’s like Obama’s two terms, or rectal exams; we want to get these things over with as soon as possible.

11 Comments so far
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While I haven’t voted for either Obama or Romney (I’m in Texas), I find it interesting how far off supposedly smart people were on this.

Comment by Mike

I’m still waiting for Michael Barone’s “fundamentals” to kick in.

Comment by Sonic Charmer

It isn’t just the presidency…bad night all around for the Republicans.

Comment by Matt

Comment by Pastorius

Change you can believe in: I predict soft drinks in NY will, in 4 years time be sold only in 100ml packages and with a sizable tax.
You know, in biology there’s a concept of genetic drift. Of useless dna segments that nevertheless spread across populations. The same applies to ideas too. There’s no real progress. Just movement. Take the 70’s with their disgusting fashion-sense. At the time, it seemed ‘cool’ to wear those nasty jeans that spread out.
The nanny-state is on the ascendent. . . Here’s four more years of winter.

Comment by Anon.

Four more years?

What would change it, Anon?

Comment by Pastorius

The only thing I can think of that is comparable is re-electing Roosevelt over and over during the Depression.

But this is worse, because this dude actually likes Venezuela. That’s his goal for us.

Comment by Pastorius

CNN has called Ohio for Obama, despite it being no closer than Florida.

There might actually be recounts in more than one state.

Comment by Matt

WTF is CNN doing? Obama is actually slightly behind in Ohio now (well within MOE), and the state is still called for him.

Comment by Matt

And it doesn’t matter, cause Obama wins anyway. I was so looking forward to that huge MSNBC hissy fit too.

Comment by Matt

Apparently the shy tories were calling themselves ‘independents’.

Comment by A Lady

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