Election post mort ’em
November 7, 2012, 6:49 am
Filed under: Uncategorized

Prescience: was I the first to call it? August 7, 2011 (and before that too, but too lazy to find):

Let me go once again on the record about my estimate of President Obama’s re-election prospects: they are as high as they ever were, and I fully expect him to be re-elected.

What’s even more impressive is how much data I based that on:

Doubters may scoff and wonder on what facts, substance, or data I am basing this judgment. The answer: none.

In other words, my prognostication/data efficiency ratio was through the roof. I didn’t use up any of the world’s precious data resources. Why aren’t I being given the Nate Silver treatment?

UPDATE: I found the other evidence for my prescience I was looking for: The Age Of Perennial Two-Termers, June 9, 2011:

I fully expect President Obama to still be President Obama in 2013 and will be surprised by any other outcome.

If conservatives want consolation, they can take to heart my theory that the Presidency is simply an eight-year position:

I wonder if we’re transitioning to a new age of Perennial Two-Termers, if for all intents and purposes we should just come to grips with the empirical fact that our office of Presidency is an eight-year office.

This theory seems stronger than ever. The more I think about it, the more I think it has to do with celebrity. When we elect a President, we are electing him to be our Main Celebrity. And we just don’t want to let the Main Celebrity fall out of the spotlight in a scant four years.

I’m actually holding off on totally calling the election for Obama FYI, because I’m still waiting for Michael Barone’s “fundamentals”™ to kick in. Anyone have the link to a good site where these “fundamentals” are tracked in realtime?

I also suspect the votes need to be ‘unskewed’. It’s looking like the votes in some states may have been taken from an electorate that was D+N. Um, IDIOTS, of COURSE Obama would win if you count votes from D+N people! But the real question is what happens when you ‘unskew’ those votes to the party-breakdown we know is the case, right? Why, in some places it looks like the electorate is almost practically using a 2008 turnout model. That’s ridiculous! Use your head!

It’s just a good thing Romney was so ‘electable’. I look forward to continuing this unbroken string of ‘electable’ (R) candidates losing the, like, actual elections to (D) candidates for many, many glorious years to come.

Maybe Romney just needed to ‘reach out’ more to immigrants and blacks? To ask for their vote? Yeah, I think that’s the problem. I think he forgot to ask black people to vote for him instead of the black guy he was running against. If he just asked them, they probably totally would’ve. He could have at LEAST gotten 6.1% of the black vote instead of 6%. I’m no math whiz but I’m pretty sure that tips the scales.

Next time we’ll nominate an ‘electable’ candidate, to run against a black guy, and then have him spend 99% of his campaign time in black and high-immigrant places to ‘reach out to’ them. See how that works. I bet it’ll work. And if we’re unsure whether it will work, we can just ask a bunch of (D)s, and pathologically righty-averse libertarians who care mostly about open-borders based on theoretical reasoning to the exclusion of, like, actual fascism being implemented, whether they think the (R) should do it, and if they say “YES!!!” then we should totally do it because you just know that’s some solid sincere advice right there.

Relatedly, I’m hearing that the voting public was lower-white% than before, and Romney didn’t get the dominating white vote-share he needed to overcome it, and so forth. Clearly this calls for more open borders and for the Rethugs to stop obsessing over so-called ‘illegal’ immigration or ‘enforcing’ the so-called ‘laws’. That’s the only way they’ll turn this dynamic around and win elections again. I don’t see anything whatsoever wrong with that logic.

To all the whites who voted for Obama, I think you should get a cookie with “Not Racist!” written in frosting on top. You can munch on it dreamily as you’re sending in your yearly multi-thousand$ Obamacare check to pay for some health care services that you are not going to be receiving via the National Health Care Thing you wanted so badly and love so much now that it is here even though it has had no effect on you yet and the only effect it is going to have on you is paying the aforementioned thousands of dollars per year.

Drudge now showing Obama with a slight lead in the ‘popular vote’, which is good because I guess lefties won’t have to write those “Obama needs to govern from the center and reach across the aisle” columns after all. I’m presuming, of course, that had there been a popular/EV split, such columns would have been as forthcoming from the left as they were in 2000.

Similarly, I presume the campaign to undermine the electoral college is alive and well, and states like California don’t have to have panicky second-thoughts about their popular-vote pledge after all. Such an anachronism!…er, I mean a wisely-constructed system by the Founding Fath…ahhhh, scratch that – anachronism!!

Congratulations upon his re-election to President Obama, who it turns out is – as I suspected – still a skinny, suave sort-of-black man who looks good in a suit and ‘sonorously’ reads speeches off teleprompters after all.

UPDATE: What I’m really looking forward to is the Stupid Party learning the true lesson of the election, which is that it’s all Chris Christie’s fault for not having his priorities straight and making sure to deny any and all photo-ops to the President during a disastrous storm in his state. After all, I’m pretty sure it’s totally true that a bunch of Ohio voters were pro-Romney or at least on the fence, but then they saw photos of Obama being embraced by Governor Fatty “Fatso” McFatterson over in New Jersey, and they thought to themselves, that settles it, if that totally glutinous disgusting fat guy likes Obama, I’m on board as well. Because that’s totally what Ohio voters cared about I bet. But if Chris Christie had, like, spit on President Obama and said ‘my storm-ravaged state doesn’t want or need your help! Go away!’, this whole thing would have turned out differently.

UPDATE: I’m reading that Gary Johnson got 0.9% in Ohio and the O-R margin was 0.2%. Hey libertarians, how’s that big 5% threshold effort workin’ out for you? Nice going. The ambitious long-term plan appears to be right on track.

9 Comments so far
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I think I didn’t want to believe the R voter pool had shrunk relative to the D voter pool, but that is, well, what the polls were showing. All those ‘unlikely’ voters are now likely voters, since they, you know, show up to vote for cool black guys.

Sux 2 b rong, but yeah, lol at your also accurate portrayal of obamacare.

Comment by A Lady

I think people focused on the ‘enthusiasm’/party-ID/polls-oversample-(D)s argument were just missing basic demographic dynamics. Party-ID aside, the white% is smaller now than it was 4 years ago, and 8 years ago, etc. In particular, the flux never favored (R)s: the folks who have died in the past 4 years are disproportionately older white folks; the new voters are disproportionately young and not-all-that-white Obama FORWARD’ers. And so forth. This background tide was easy to overlook among all the polling stats.

Comment by Sonic Charmer

That is an element, but at the same time Romney lost the election in the mostly white great lakes states. I’m not convinced that “Diversity”, Hispanics especially, had much of an effect on the outcome.

Romney does lose big on the generation gap though. He also loses, as Sailer has noted, on the Singles gap.

Comment by Matt

BTW, I’m glad I read this blog with your incessant poll-scrutinizing over others with their “enthusiasm” and such. Really, the presidential outcome didn’t surprise me nearly as much as the losses on the Senate, House, and on gay marriage.

Comment by Matt

I look forward to being lectured by libertarians on how it’s all the social conservatives’ fault.

Comment by Chris

Anyone else here think it’s really hard to win an election with a message that says, au fond, “Suck it up, take on some personal responsibility and quit depending on a government teat for your fiscal nourishment”?
Illegal immigrants want an auto-citizen gold card and somehow voting Hispanics think that’s a good thing; college youth want someone else to pay for their unproductive education; elder retirees want someone else to pay for their endless rounds of golf; doanwannawork layabouts want food stamps; doanwannawork for less than I made in 2007 UE beneficiaries want a bubble-sized salary; single moms want a gov’t-sized sugar daddy; underwater homeowners want someone else to pay off their bubble negative equity; et al. Everyone wants a bailout.
The balance has tipped too far. Too many have their hands out for that free lunch that’s supposed to not exist.

Comment by colocomment

Well, welcome to democracy. The only reason we’ve been able to go at it so hard and for so long is because of what amounts to a historical accident (i.e. since 1944 we’ve had the exorbitant privilege of printing up piles and piles of the world reserve currency). Rest assured there are forces at work to rectify that sitch, and when we finally do get a major and permanent forex realignment all of those parasites to whom you refer will surely slink away peacefully into the night, feeling guilt at having plundered and bankrupted their fellows and suffering great shame for their very selfish behavior throughout the 20th and 21st centuries.

Comment by Redd Kross Matt

“…parasites to whom you refer will surely slink away peacefully into the night, feeling guilt at having plundered and bankrupted their fellows and suffering great shame for their very selfish behavior throughout the 20th and 21st centuries.”
Like the Greek “parasites” rioting in the streets of Athens, yes?

I can’t tell if you forgot the /sarc off, or if you’re serious….

Comment by colocomment

Lol. Apparently The Other McCain doesn’t read RWCG:

If only Akin, Mourdock and Christie hadn’t thrown a wrench into it, just think! Although to be fair, you’ve got to give McCain some credit because “gelatinous clown” is pretty good.

Comment by Redd Kross Matt

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